Founders are raising bigger seed checks, but fewer are making Series A, Crunchbase finds

Why it matters

Founders are optimizing for a different game: bigger seeds are the new normal, but graduation to Series A is slower and less certain. Planning for 24-30 months of runway to reach $2-4M ARR and treating seed as the bar-raising proving ground increases the odds of clearing a more selective Series A market.

Founders raising seed in 2026 are landing bigger checks, but the path to Series A is getting longer and narrower, according to a Crunchbase News analysis.

Crunchbase says the median U.S. seed round last year was around $3 million, roughly 3x 2018. The upper quartile was around $5.6 million and the lower quartile $1 million, with a wide range of outcomes at the edges. Series A checks have grown too: the median U.S. Series A was $15 million last year, with upper and lower quartiles at $25 million and $7 million, and medians moving higher into 2026. That headline inflation is colliding with a harsher graduation rate: of companies that raised a $1 million-plus seed in 2023, only 27% have progressed, and just 24% of the 2024 cohort has moved forward so far.

Bigger seeds, slower As

Andy McLoughlin, managing partner at Uncork Capital, tells Crunchbase that seeds now span from $3 million to $5 million at inception to $8 million to $10 million-plus when founders and markets look obvious. His firm has nearly doubled average seed checks in 18 months to about $4.5 million while aiming for at least 10% ownership. The speed shift surprised even him: "If you'd asked me 18 months ago, would the $8 million to $10 million-plus seed round become de facto, I would have said you were crazy."

Meanwhile, time from seed to Series A is extending. Since 2023, U.S. startups with initial seeds of $1 million or more are taking more than two years to raise an A, continuing a post-2018 trend that briefly tightened by about six months in the 2021-2022 peak.

The ARR bar moved up

The old shorthand that $1 million ARR could unlock an A is fading. In the AI era, McLoughlin says investors look for $2 million to $3 million, even $4 million in annual recurring revenue as evidence a business is scaling. That shift, combined with larger A checks, forces founders to plan for more time and capital between seed and A.

"When you're fundraising for your Series A, you're not in competition with the startups you deem to be competitors," McLoughlin said. You are competing with every other deal a firm could do at that moment, based on how advanced their pipeline is and how selective partners are about breakout profiles.

Portfolio math is changing

For seed managers, Crunchbase reports this environment is pushing harder choices on reserve strategy and stage. Deploying larger seeds to maintain ownership concentrates exposure, while waiting to invest earlier risks more mortality. As McLoughlin put it, managers need to be comfortable with more early outcomes or failures if the winners can be bigger than before.

What founders can do with this data

• Underwrite a longer seed-to-A runway. If the median time is now 24-plus months, budget to hit $2-4M ARR without counting on a quick A.
• Treat seed as your definitive proving ground. With A medians climbing and selectivity rising, assume you will need breakout metrics, not just momentum, to clear the bar.
• Align your round size with real milestones. If you choose a larger seed, make sure the capital maps to specific ARR and product milestones that de-risk your A.
• Calibrate expectations with your lead. Ownership targets and check sizes have shifted; negotiate the plan to reserves and follow-ons early.

Crunchbase, the private-market data platform used by investors and operators to track funding activity, has been publishing these shifts across seed and Series A in its data products and newsroom. You can learn more about the platform at crunchbase.com.